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Machinery industry under the new normal abnormal"

Machinery industry in the national economy status will be decreased

Foreign trade and investment to boost China's economy encountered bottleneck has been obvious to all, after the financial crisis, Chinese export growth is slowing down, lasted a full 10 years of high investment mode led to soaring energy and raw materials prices and the consequent social excess capacity, environmental pollution.

"New normal" under the first change is the adjustment of economic structure, that is, from the foreign trade, investment driven into a new consumption led growth model. Is closely related to the development of machinery industry and investment in fixed assets, 2014 1-11 months of the national fixed asset investment, the cumulative growth of 15.8%, is expected to the annual growth rate of 15.5%, a further decline in 2015 industrial and real estate investment growth is expected to fixed asset investment growth will drop to 14.5%.

The connotation of the "new normal" is not only the decline in economic growth, more reflected in the sustainable and healthy development, low energy consumption, green economy will become the dominant, can be expected, after 1999-2012 years of heavy and chemical industry development stage, China's heavy industry development will slow, proportion of the second industry in the national economy will be reduced, instead is the rise of the third industry, the contribution of the first industry in the national economy will also rise. These are clearly the machinery industry overcapacity is not good news.

"Along the way" for many years committed to bring obvious boost to the internationalization of machinery industry, which may bring some international orders for machinery industry, but it is difficult to alleviate the enterprise should be accounts receivable and so the pressure on cash flow.

From vertical integration to specialized division of labor

The second changes of the "new normal" are from the pursuit of scale to the pursuit of efficiency and innovation. China machinery industry is developed on the basis of introduction of foreign mature technology, in addition to the high-speed rail, aerospace and other some monopoly industries, most of the industry in full competition, and between enterprises homogenization is very serious, the competition between enterprises are generally depend on the size and price to win in the competition, the scale of a leading industry.

Driven by the scale, the investment of some enterprises is not only reflected in the market share, but also reflected in the production scale. We observed in the rapid growth of the market, vertical integration of manufacturing enterprises in all aspects are able to make money, more often than only the whole integrated enterprise higher profit margins, until the industry declined, the vertical integration of enterprises began showing a more professional enterprises greater risk.

There is a phenomenon of Chinese machinery manufacturing enterprises tend to the whole industry chain manufacturing, the industry thick ", from components and design manufacturing to machine sales are swept; and foreign machinery manufacturing enterprises are generally willing to the enterprises to do the" thin ", in the industrial chain of specialized division of labor, supply of parts and components enterprises pay more attention to technology, host manufacturing enterprises pay more attention to brand planning and marketing. In the past for a long time, China machinery industry vertical integration mode of the reason for the more successful, there are two reasons: is one of the main parts and assembly technology basically is the direct introduction of foreign mature technology, enterprise saves the cost of research and development, enterprise actual cost and profit are derived from the manufacturing sector; the second is demand in a sustained, rapid growth of mechanical manufacturing business fixed investment could be recovered in the short term, as long as the relevant fixed costs to support manufacturing costs, companies can profit.

In the "new normal", the competitiveness of enterprises will be more from the innovation ability of enterprises, research and development will become very important, some professional enterprises in technology will be advantage; changes in the market and changes of products does not support the enterprises of high fixed investment in equipment, some industry a long chain of enterprises will have to peel high fixed costs of supporting enterprises to more flexibly adapt to changes in the market.

Facing the "trap" of reform and opportunities

A word associated with the "new normal" Aioi is deepening reform, can determine the economic system environment will be further improved, market in the allocation of resources play an increasingly decisive role. For mechanical industry market-oriented reform could is a two-way street, on the one hand, the state-owned and state holding enterprises may by managerial ownership further in line with the market, on the other hand, we also see a number of central enterprises in promoting market or "conversion" reform, they hope through the acquisition of some market machinery manufacturing enterprises to promote the marketization of the entire group.

Recently, mechanical industry restructuring news, first national machine group acquired double, another AVIC acquisition of Nantong Science and technology, the recent Xiamen Engineering shares announced big shareholder gratuitously allocated to AVIC's announcement. However, we found that for the highly competitive in the industry, new in the relative monopoly of large shareholders and can not be brought to the enterprise competitiveness, 2012 Changlin large shareholders Foma group, the equity allocation to the largest shareholder in